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Council to Continue Gutting the Downtown

On November 22 council will decide whether to tear down the Community Arena to build a new library, Art Gallery and Convention Center. Under the plan that will be presented to council is to wait until the Wolves can move to the city’ new arena out in the east end – say two years, then tear down the current arena, then build a complex of new buildings on the site.

Under the best possible scenario, the project will take at least four years and it is likely to take six. For all that time there will be a big hole in the downtown. Business development in the area is likely to come to a screeching halt. Tax revenues will certainly drop for years.

Under the worst scenario the next council will find that the cupboard is bare and they will postpone the project. No new art gallery, no Synergy Center, no new library space. We will look at the downtown and say “Did that council ever leave a mess!”

The most logical strategy for the city is to look for a partner that wants to build a new hotel and conference center integrated with the Synergy center and connected to the old arena. The city has already assembled almost all the land between the Arena and the Sudbury Theatre center. What a magnet that hotel would be! An upgraded arena on one side, a theatre on the other, with the public arts attached.

By building together the value of a hotel on the site would be much greater. The city would make money by selling some of the land. With City hall to the north the complex would easily support a multilevel parking complex. As a tax generator it makes the Kingsway project look like a peanut farm.

Of course this takes vision and an entrepreneurial council. We have a council that has shown little vision and less judgement on economic issues. We have a council that has thrown money at projects that don’t promote the economy and is now considering undermining projects that do have some chance of strengthening the economy.

Staff basically killed the Minto-Shaughnessy solution by treating the a single block with a lane cutting through it as two separate sites. Both halves of the block are a bit small. Using the site evaluation scheme each half is less attractive than the tear-down plan. Taken together the two halves of the block clearly win. It will be interesting to see if council is taken in by this trick.

The report from staff assures council that “there are no immediate financial implications.” Given that council has already committed more money than it can afford to the Maley drive white elephant and to an Arena for Dario and the casino corporation, zero cost coming up to the next election is a major attraction. Unfortunately, council is just kicking the cost down the road. The next council will have to come up with funds to tear down the Arena, and it could be the the council after that has to find funds to start construction on projects that this council says it wants.

Council really should put out a call for proposals from hotel developers who want to partner in the most exciting project in any city in Northern Ontario. Instead it looks like this council’s legacy will be a big hole in the center of the city.

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Do Your Neighbours Know?

Do you think your neighbours understand how serious climate warming really is? Do they understand that on our current path at least a billion will die, jellyfish will take over the oceans, oceans will take over Florida, deserts will take over the central USA, and any vestige of traditional Inuit life will disappear?

I don’t mean to be alarmist here. These are just the basic and standard signposts on the path we are following. It is true that many countries have begun the process of getting rid of fossil fuel driven cars and that the technology is already available. It is true that the coal industry has as much future as a beached whale. And Canada has a small carbon tax coming in the near future.

It is also true that that the best estimates of the effect of all these steps still leave us in the “climate disaster” zone in 50 years.

Do you think your neighbour knows that the Federal carbon tax and the provincial Cap and Trade schemes are wildly inadequate? That the Provincial minister of energy doesn’t understand the path we are on or the economics of changing direction?

It matters whether our neighbours know. The action we need has to at happen the political level. Our politicians believe the public neither know or cares. They are clearly trying to follow public opinion rather than lead. That means that in a crazy way our neighbours are the leaders.

Hence the question: “Do you think your neighbours understand how serious climate warming really is?”

And if they don’t, what do we do?

It’s Not the End of the World Yet

Its not the end of the world yet.

If you were one of the surprising number of people who shared my worry about my sister in Puerto Rico, you can stop worrying. Andy, the sister, climbed a mountain to be close enough to a cell phone tower to get a call out to her husband. He in turn has posted news that eventually reached me. (She still hasn’t called me, so of course I will never forgive her.)

Her son Iancy got to the island before Maria hit and is helping with the cleanup. He spent a night in line to get gas for the generator. And he has posted a picture that proves Andy is alive.

Watching this climate-change disaster unfold and seeing how ill-prepared the richest country in the world is has me wondering how we will weather (no pun intended) the disasters headed our way. We have done very badly with the recent floods and fires. The Quebec ice storm wasn’t encouraging.

Storms will get worse as the globe warms. This could be the year we get a massive ice storm in Northern Ontario. The heat that drives the hurricanes also drives winter storms. It can suck Arctic air down across Canada and the USA and combine with wet Pacific, southern or lake air to produce an ice storm. This could be the year the power goes out.

I am from the west coast where winters are warm. I never owned winter boots and had no idea what 10 below felt like. As winter comes on each year a voice deep inside starts to whimper that we are all going to die from the cold.

Are you prepared? I’m not. My gas furnace doesn’t work without electricity. I am wondering whether many Sudburians have any kind of backup heat.

So what should we be dong? How many of our neigbours are at risk? I am not a prepper – not one of the more than three million Americans and Canadians getting ready for the end of the world by building fortresses and buying guns. I am starting to wonder, though — unlike the preppers — how we will take care of our neighbours when climate warming or earthquakes shake the foundations we rely on. I would rather we get ready to support our neighbours instead of buying guns to shoot them. it just seems more Canadian!.

What do you think?

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Waiting for the Call from Puerto Rico

I haven’t heard from my sister in a couple of weeks – Phones are out in Puerto Rico where she lives. I got a message after Irma hit that power and water were out and she was low on gas for her generator. She was running it to keep a neighbour’s respirator going. A bit of pressure there. The freezer was still full of food and would keep her going as long as she had gas for the generator. There were trees down in the yard. Her husband was in Texas working for FIMA.Puerto Rico Map

Maria was worse than Irma. Apocalyptic is the word on CNN. Now cellphone towers are gone. Food is running out. There is looting. Rumours pass though the family that she may come home to Canada. If she abandons the house she will almost certainly lose more. It isn’t even clear she can get off the island.

It feels like 114 degrees there says the news. At that temperature the elderly are in serious danger. They have to drink lots of water. There is not much safe water available. I still see of my sister as she was when we were six, and as she looked in high school. Sometimes I remember her as she looked when our kids played together, but she is retired now. Tough as I think she is, a disaster zone in killing heat isn’t where I want her to be.

How many other Canadian families are waiting for news, getting ready for rescue missions, and worrying? This is climate change coming home. The fires in the west and the floods in Saskatchewan are not as dramatic as the hurricanes, but they are just as much part of the problem — part of our future.

The warming signal was clear back in 1988. 30 years later only idiots are still arguing. The current IQ test is whether people are pushing action. So far we just have Canadian government acting like they are acting. It drives me nuts that Ontario’s government and my MP pretend that their cap and trade system will work.

So I am watching the news from Puerto Rico and waiting for a phone call.

The Opposite of Economic Development

As a child develops she doesn’t just get larger. She also gets more capable, more complicated, more coordinated. The same is true of countries. Economic development for a country means producing more products, more complex products and having more connections among the parts of the economy.

A neat graph on the Visual Capitalist shows how the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) changes for the 12 years to 2015 for 123 countries.

The site show Canada at sitting at position 33. That represents a decline of 8 places since 2006. Romania and Estonia passed us in 2006. China passed us in 2007. Thailand passed us in 2007 too, fell behind again, and passed for good in 2009. Mexico has been more developed country by this measure for the entire period.

The Ukraine declined about the same amount as Canada, but that country was invaded. How do we explain Canada’s strange developmental delay?

Opposite of Economic Development

Part of the explanation is our oil boom. The Canadian dollar rose rapidly as the tar sands and off-shore oil were developed. That drove out many manufacturing operation. Exporting more raw resources hurt our more advanced industries. You may remember how a number of critics – including Tom Mulcair – suggests we were suffering from what economists call the “Dutch Disease.” The government of the day and the oil companies howled them down, but they were basically right.

When oil prices fell, the decline slowed, and then in 2015 Canada gained a few places in the economic complexity rankings. That is exactly the pattern we would expect if we had been suffering from the Dutch Disease.

Prime Minister Harper, our leader from Alberta, was convinced the path to development was through the oil patch. He was wrong.

If you have been worrying what cancelling natural gas projects and pipelines will do to our economy, you can stop worrying right now. Canada will have a more complicated future as a result, and that is a very good thing.

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-economic-complexity/

 

How To Impoverish A Country

A graphic published today by the Visual Capitalist tells a clear story about the decline of the USA in moral and economic terms.

A country is rich when its people are rich. But who are the people that count when you measure the wealth of a country?

minimum-wage-inflation

For Jesus it seems to have been the poorest: “Verily I say unto you, In as much as ye did it unto one of these my brethren, even these least, ye did it unto me.” (Matthew 25:40, American Standard Version). The American philosopher John Rawls has often been described as the most important political philosopher of the 20th century. He took the same position in his famous book, “A Theory of Justice.”

The minimum wage doesn’t really tell us how the least of us are doing, but it does tell us about how the very large number of working people near the bottom of the income distribution are doing. That group has seen a 60-year decline in real incomes.

More or less since the middle of the Vietnam war the purchasing power of the minimum wage in the USA has been declining. It didn’t have to happen. Borrowing to pay for the war, the resulting inflation, the world-wide recession caused by the USA when it abandoned the gold standard and reneged on its international debts, and the Reagan-Bush attacks on unions were all political actions. They were not the irresistible working of an anonymous economic machine. They were a result of decision made by American leaders and American voters.

And they made the USA poorer. The decline of the the USA as a superpower was a result of policies designed to keep American workers from getting a fair share of the steadily increasing wealth of the US. And that has impoverished the USA.

It has in fact impoverished all of us.

Inequality — “X” Marks the Spot — Dig Here,” Stan Sorcher, August 29, 2017.

Censored: the Truth About Havey

You have heard that Harvey is unusual – a big storm that hit land, wandered back to the Gulf of Mexico then decided to hang around for a week dropping unprecedented amounts of water on poor Texans. What you don’t hear in all the coverage of Harvey is that the Texans are to blame, at least to the extent that, as major oil producers and refiners, the state makes much of its living driving climate warming.

It isn’t nice to blame the victims during a “natural disaster” but the astonishing thing about the coverage is how systematic the self-censorship really is. Have you heard a clear description of how climate change has made this storm unusual? Or of how it will bring more storms like Harvey in the future? I have not heard one discussion on CBC of the story behind Harvey.

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The questions are fairly simple. Why is Harvey stuck on Texas? And why is Harvey dumping so much water on Texas? It is all about heat.

The amount of rain is easy to explain – the Gulf of Mexico is a big pool of warm water. We are having a warm summer, so lots of water is evaporating. Harvey just sucks it up and delivers it to Texas. A warmer climate means there is more water to dump on Texas.

But why is Harvey so strong it can deliver all this water? Because the Gulf of Mexico is warm. Hurricanes suck energy from warm water.

OK, so why is Harvey hanging around? This is unusual. It is also related to climate warming. Have you noticed all the fires on the west coast? Climate warming, obviously – as is the great California drought. Lots of warm air on the coast tends to push north and to push the jet stream north along the Rockies. The cool arctic air has to go somewhere, so it pushes south over the prairies. That tends to slow the northerly winds that would normally carry Harvey north onto land, where it would lose energy.

Heat, heat, heat – Harvey’s story is all about heat. The Texas disaster is simply a little bit of collateral damage caused by climate warming.

And there will be more Texas disasters, just as there will be more great fires in Alberta, more Russian heat waves, more Pakistani floods, more California droughts and more Somali famines.

As the arctic warms and the polar ice disappears, the jet stream slows. When it slows it meanders more. The weather map will show bigger and bigger loops. These bigger, slower loops tend to get stuck. When they get stuck we get longer heat waves, and longer spells of rain.

The media are ignoring the big story to talk about the details of a local disaster. Are the media people self-censoring because they don’t want to seem to blame the victims? Do they think the real story is whether some dog on a roof is saved? Are they bored with an issue they only half understand?

A big part of the story that is not getting through is that Harvey is a story about lack of leadership. It is about climate denial by our last prime minister and by the American’s current president. Another part of the story is about reporters and media executives who are not really doing the job we need them to do. They get paid by advertisers, so they produce entertainment – disaster porn, some call it. It sells better than the real story.

Let me know if you understood the Harvey story before you read this. Maybe I am wrong to think all my neighbours have their heads in the sand. Maybe the media are doing a good job. Maybe our politicians are doing all that needs to be done.

What do you think?